A drumbeat among many Democrats is to galvanize persuadable voters in a righteous movement to āsave democracyā from a Republican Party now wholly ruled by former president Donald Trump. Itās an appeal to the founding tenet of our nation and one that has resonance for many voters, especially in light of the violent assault by Trump supporters on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Democratic congressional candidates in suburban swing districts near Washington find it especially alluring ahead of Juneās Democratic primary elections in their appeal to both the progressives, who turn out in heavy numbers for nomination contests, and centrists who detest Trump.
The New York Times reported evidence of that in a recent story about House campaigns in districts serving bedroom localities near and just outside the Beltway. The Times highlighted the Virginia campaign of retired Army Lt. Col. Yevgeny "Eugene" Vindman, one of seven Democrats seeking the nomination to succeed 7th District Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is forgoing reelection to run for governor next year. Vindman is making preserving democracy from the threat he says it faces under a second Trump presidency and a Republican Congress a cornerstone of his candidacy.
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In 2020, Trump fired Vindman from his National Security Council after he and his twin brother, Lt. Col. Alexander S. Vindman, raised concerns over Trumpās 2019 phone call urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to unearth damaging information about Biden and his son, Hunter Biden. The call precipitated Trumpās first impeachment.
In an interview with the Times, Eugene Vindman acknowledged that there is a āsubsetā of voters for whom the threat to democracy is insufficient to guide their vote.
āBut the vast majority of folks do think that democracy is the most important issue because they see it very much like I see it. Every other issue is rolled into it,ā he said.
Vindmanās celebrity from his time in the national headlines and the star power it lends to his āsaving democracyā message allowed him to more than quadruple the combined fundraising totals of the other six Democratic primary contenders through March 31, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. His $3.8 million accounts for three-fifths of all fundraising by 7th District candidates of both parties.
While it could win him the nomination, betting on the primacy of that message to prevail in November is risky.
Polling conducted by The Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research showed that the issue is potent, but not dominant. Two-thirds of the 1,074 adults surveyed, including large majorities in both parties, said that āthe survival of democracyā is an āextremely importantā or āvery importantā issue for them in this yearās elections. Reasons for that belief, however, differed radically by party.
Democrats believe that Trumpās expressed desires to disregard checks and balances, diminish institutions that hold power to account and the Jan. 6 Capitol siege by a crowd he had just urged to āfight like hellā show a clear path to authoritarianism if he receives a second term. Republicans, by contrast, see Joe Biden as a threat to democracy as they accuse him of using the power of government institutions to harass and investigate Donald Trump.
Furthermore, safeguarding democracy wasnāt the most pressing issue for voters generally. That was ā as it almost always is ā the economy. Three-fourths of those surveyed ranked it the top concern, including 82% of Republicans and 73% of Democrats.
Though inflation has moderated its meteoric climb of recent years, it remains a constant and vexing issue for low- and middle-income Americans who have been forced to make significant sacrifices because of the prices of food, housing and fuel/transportation. It is a major reason Bidenās job-approval rating is dangerously low and feeds votersā perception that Democrats canāt address the problem.
Other factors that will challenge Democrats, especially in competitive congressional districts such as Virginiaās 7th and 10th, include government spending, immigration and border security, which round out the top five voter issues expressed in the poll. Each of those energizes Republican voters far more than Democrats, the poll shows. An issue that strongly favors Democrats, abortion policy, finished seventh.
Candidates do what they must to win primaries. But a nominee who is too reliant early on a single issue ā especially one with starkly different interpretations across partisan lines ā risks playing catch-up on concerns of equal or even greater importance to a broader electorate in the fall.
Mark J. Rozell is the dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University where he holds the Ruth D. and John T. Hazel Chair in Public Policy. He is co-editor of “The New Dominion: The Twentieth-Century Elections That Shaped Modern Virginia." Contact him at mrozell@gmu.edu.